Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 18, 2016
Eibar 5–1 Granada: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Granada 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Eibar win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 5 | 1.71 |
 Granada | 1 | 0.96 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Eibar about even · −17 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 7, 2 end level, Granada win 1.
- 1 EIB 2 GRA 1
- 2 EIB 1 GRA 0
- 3 EIB 2 GRA 0
- 4 EIB 2 GRA 0
- 5 EIB 3 GRA 0
- 6 EIB 4 GRA 0
- 7 EIB 6 GRA 1
- 8 EIB 1 GRA 1
- 9 EIB 0 GRA 0
- 10 EIB 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 75%, 16% end level, Granada win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 29.8% |
| Eibar by 2 | 22.0% |
| Eibar by 1 | 23.2% |
| Draw | 16.1% |
| Granada by 1 | 6.6% |
| Granada by 2 | 1.8% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 12 | 5 | 1.71 | +3.29 |
 Granada | 4 | 1 | 0.96 | +0.04 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Takashi Inui scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 37' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 64' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.92 |
| 67' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 73' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 78' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.83 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Ander Capa Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% GRA |
| 2 | 21' | Rene Krhin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% EIB |
| 3 | 25' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% GRA |
| 4 | 34' | Takashi Inui scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +24% EIB |
| 5 | 37' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +10% EIB |
| 6 | 64' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 92% chance | +1% GRA |
| 7 | 67' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +8% EIB |
| 8 | 73' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +1% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 92% · draw 8% · Granada 1%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.4 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 75% · draw 16% · Granada 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Granada
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