Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 17, 2016
Barcelona 6–0 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Athletic 6–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 6 | 2.82 |
 Athletic Club | 0 | 1.09 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Barcelona about even · −9 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 9, 1 ends level, Athletic win 0.
- 1 BAR 2 ATH 1
- 2 BAR 3 ATH 1
- 3 BAR 3 ATH 1
- 4 BAR 4 ATH 1
- 5 BAR 3 ATH 0
- 6 BAR 4 ATH 0
- 7 BAR 6 ATH 2
- 8 BAR 6 ATH 1
- 9 BAR 7 ATH 0
- 10 BAR 2 ATH 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 87%, 8% end level, Athletic win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 6.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 55.9% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 17.7% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 13.8% |
| Draw | 8.2% |
| Athletic by 1 | 3.3% |
| Athletic by 2 | 0.9% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 20 (1 pen) | 6 | 2.82 | +3.18 |
 Athletic | 9 | 0 | 1.09 | −1.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 30' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 46' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 61' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 68' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 81' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 84' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Javier Eraso Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BAR |
| 2 | 6' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% BAR |
| 3 | 15' | Óscar de Marcos Arana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% BAR |
| 4 | 21' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% ATH |
| 5 | 22' | Ivan Rakitić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% ATH |
| 6 | 26' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% ATH |
| 7 | 30' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +11% BAR |
| 8 | 46' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +2% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 98% · draw 2% · Athletic 0%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 6
- Luck in goals
- 3.2 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 87% · draw 8% · Athletic 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sevilla 2–1 Málaga Jan 16, 2016 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Celta 4–3 Levante Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Celta
- Villarreal 0–0 Betis Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Real Madrid 5–1 Sporting Jan 17, 2016 · replay 92% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–2 Rayo Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Las Palmas 0–3 Atlético Jan 17, 2016 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Getafe 3–1 Espanyol Jan 17, 2016 · replay 66% for Getafe
- Eibar 5–1 Granada Jan 18, 2016 · replay 83% for Eibar