Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad and Deportivo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 6 of 10, Deportivo 2, and 2 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 2.92 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 1.42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −20 Real Sociedad about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 6, 2 end level, Deportivo win 2.
- 1 RSO 3 DEP 2
- 2 RSO 2 DEP 1
- 3 RSO 3 DEP 1
- 4 RSO 4 DEP 2
- 5 RSO 4 DEP 1
- 6 RSO 5 DEP 1
- 7 RSO 2 DEP 2
- 8 RSO 1 DEP 1
- 9 RSO 1 DEP 3
- 10 RSO 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 61%, 18% end level, Deportivo win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 24.6% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 17.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 18.7% |
| Draw | 17.5% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 12.2% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 5.7% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 16 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.92 | −1.92 |
 Deportivo | 7 | 1 | 1.42 | −0.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 14' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 25' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shot | 0.79 |
| 34' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 74' | Xabier Prieto Argarate scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +5% DEP |
| 2 | 12' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% RSO |
| 3 | 14' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +10% DEP |
| 4 | 25' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shotFinishing · 79% chance | +6% DEP |
| 5 | 34' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +11% DEP |
| 6 | 39' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% DEP |
| 7 | 74' | Xabier Prieto Argarate scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% RSO |
| 8 | 92' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 74% · draw 17% · Deportivo 10%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 61% · draw 18% · Deportivo 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · Real Sociedad · Deportivo
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Sevilla 2–1 Málaga Jan 16, 2016 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Celta 4–3 Levante Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Celta
- Villarreal 0–0 Betis Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Real Madrid 5–1 Sporting Jan 17, 2016 · replay 92% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–2 Rayo Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Las Palmas 0–3 Atlético Jan 17, 2016 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Getafe 3–1 Espanyol Jan 17, 2016 · replay 66% for Getafe
- Barcelona 6–0 Athletic Jan 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Eibar 5–1 Granada Jan 18, 2016 · replay 83% for Eibar