Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 17, 2016
Las Palmas 0–3 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Las Palmas 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.50 |
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Atlético about even · −10 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 0, 1 ends level, Atlético win 9.
- 1 LPA 1 ATM 1
- 2 LPA 1 ATM 7
- 3 LPA 0 ATM 4
- 4 LPA 0 ATM 3
- 5 LPA 0 ATM 3
- 6 LPA 0 ATM 2
- 7 LPA 0 ATM 2
- 8 LPA 0 ATM 2
- 9 LPA 0 ATM 1
- 10 LPA 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 4%, 11% end level, Atlético win 85%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.7% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 3.3% |
| Draw | 11.0% |
| Atlético by 1 | 21.7% |
| Atlético by 2 | 22.4% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 40.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 11 | 0 | 0.50 | −0.50 |
 Atlético | 11 | 3 | 1.99 | +1.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Filipe Luís Kasmirski scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 53' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 67' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 88' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% ATM |
| 2 | 16' | The game turned hereFilipe Luís Kasmirski scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +26% ATM |
| 3 | 31' | Dani Castellano Betancor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ATM |
| 4 | 32' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LPA |
| 5 | 48' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% LPA |
| 6 | 53' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +7% LPA |
| 7 | 67' | Roque Mesa Quevedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% ATM |
| 8 | 67' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +6% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 1% · draw 5% · Atlético 94%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 4% · draw 11% · Atlético 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Atlético
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sevilla 2–1 Málaga Jan 16, 2016 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Celta 4–3 Levante Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Celta
- Villarreal 0–0 Betis Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Real Madrid 5–1 Sporting Jan 17, 2016 · replay 92% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–2 Rayo Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Getafe 3–1 Espanyol Jan 17, 2016 · replay 66% for Getafe
- Barcelona 6–0 Athletic Jan 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Eibar 5–1 Granada Jan 18, 2016 · replay 83% for Eibar