Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Espanyol 2–2 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Espanyol and Villarreal drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 4 of 10, Villarreal 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 2 | 1.06 |
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.07 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −5 Espanyol about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 4, 3 end level, Villarreal win 3.
- 1 ESP 1 VIL 0
- 2 ESP 2 VIL 1
- 3 ESP 3 VIL 1
- 4 ESP 4 VIL 1
- 5 ESP 2 VIL 2
- 6 ESP 1 VIL 1
- 7 ESP 0 VIL 0
- 8 ESP 0 VIL 2
- 9 ESP 0 VIL 1
- 10 ESP 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 41%, 28% end level, Villarreal win 30%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 6.0% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 13.0% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 22.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 19.4% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 8.1% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 3.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 11 | 2 | 1.06 | +0.94 |
 Villarreal | 14 | 2 | 1.07 | +0.93 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 23' | Manuel Trigueros Muñoz scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 39' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 87' | Mateo Pablo Musacchio scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +17% ESP |
| 2 | 13' | Jonathan dos Santos Ramírez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% ESP |
| 3 | 23' | Manuel Trigueros Muñoz scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +19% VIL |
| 4 | 32' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ESP |
| 5 | 39' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +17% ESP |
| 6 | 66' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ESP |
| 7 | 85' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ESP |
| 8 | 87' | Mateo Pablo Musacchio scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +39% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 35% · draw 30% · Villarreal 35%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 41% · draw 28% · Villarreal 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Sporting 5–1 Real Sociedad Jan 22, 2016 · replay 98% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–0 Celta Jan 23, 2016 · replay 98% for Rayo
- Granada 3–2 Getafe Jan 23, 2016 · replay 73% for Granada
- Málaga 1–2 Barcelona Jan 23, 2016 · replay 76% for Barcelona
- Athletic 5–2 Eibar Jan 24, 2016 · replay 38% for Athletic
- Atlético 0–0 Sevilla Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Deportivo 1–1 Valencia Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Betis 1–1 Real Madrid Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Levante 3–2 Las Palmas Jan 25, 2016 · replay 72% for Levante