Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Granada 3–2 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Getafe 3–2, and the replays lean Granada’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Getafe, 2 end level. Granada made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 3 | 2.31 |
 Getafe | 2 | 1.93 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Granada lucky · −27 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 6, 2 end level, Getafe win 2.
- 1 GRA 2 GET 1
- 2 GRA 2 GET 1
- 3 GRA 5 GET 3
- 4 GRA 2 GET 0
- 5 GRA 4 GET 1
- 6 GRA 6 GET 1
- 7 GRA 3 GET 3
- 8 GRA 2 GET 2
- 9 GRA 2 GET 4
- 10 GRA 1 GET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 65%, 17% end level, Getafe win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 26.6% |
| Granada by 2 | 18.6% |
| Granada by 1 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 16.7% |
| Getafe by 1 | 11.1% |
| Getafe by 2 | 5.1% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 20 | 3 | 2.31 | +0.69 |
 Getafe | 9 | 2 | 1.93 | +0.07 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Francisco Manuel Rico Castro scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 35' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 41' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.88 |
| 70' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 73' | Moisés Gómez Bordonado scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 76' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 79' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% GET |
| 2 | 26' | Francisco Manuel Rico Castro scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +20% GRA |
| 3 | 35' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +7% GRA |
| 4 | 41' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 88% chance | +11% GRA |
| 5 | 70' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +6% GET |
| 6 | 73' | Moisés Gómez Bordonado scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +26% GET |
| 7 | 76' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +40% GRA |
| 8 | 78' | Wanderson Maciel Sousa Campos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 47% · draw 24% · Getafe 29%
- Final margin
- Granada by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 65% · draw 17% · Getafe 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Getafe
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