Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 24, 2016
Athletic 5–2 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Eibar 5–2, but the replays lean toward Eibar: 5 wins in 10 to Athletic’s 3, 2 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.9. An own goal helped Athletic.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 5 | 0.93 |
 Eibar | 2 | 2.02 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Athletic very lucky · −62 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 3, 2 end level, Eibar win 5.
- 1 ATH 2 EIB 1
- 2 ATH 1 EIB 0
- 3 ATH 2 EIB 0
- 4 ATH 1 EIB 1
- 5 ATH 3 EIB 3
- 6 ATH 2 EIB 5
- 7 ATH 0 EIB 2
- 8 ATH 1 EIB 3
- 9 ATH 1 EIB 2
- 10 ATH 2 EIB 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 26%, 23% end level, Eibar win 50%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 3.5% |
| Athletic by 2 | 7.8% |
| Athletic by 1 | 15.1% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Eibar by 1 | 23.3% |
| Eibar by 2 | 15.3% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 11.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 10 | 4 | 0.93 | +3.07 |
 Eibar | 9 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.02 | −0.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 11' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 18' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 26' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 39' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 49' | Borja González Tomás scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 51' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +10% EIB |
| 2 | 11' | The game turned hereAritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +23% ATH |
| 3 | 18' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +11% ATH |
| 4 | 20' | Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EIB |
| 5 | 26' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +25% ATH |
| 6 | 39' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +11% ATH |
| 7 | 49' | Borja González Tomás scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% EIB |
| 8 | 51' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +10% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 31% · draw 30% · Eibar 39%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 3
- Luck in goals
- 3.3 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 26% · draw 23% · Eibar 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Athletic · Eibar
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Sporting 5–1 Real Sociedad Jan 22, 2016 · replay 98% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–0 Celta Jan 23, 2016 · replay 98% for Rayo
- Espanyol 2–2 Villarreal Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Granada 3–2 Getafe Jan 23, 2016 · replay 73% for Granada
- Málaga 1–2 Barcelona Jan 23, 2016 · replay 76% for Barcelona
- Atlético 0–0 Sevilla Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Deportivo 1–1 Valencia Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Betis 1–1 Real Madrid Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Levante 3–2 Las Palmas Jan 25, 2016 · replay 72% for Levante