Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Málaga 1–2 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Málaga 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Barcelona about even · −24 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 1, 2 end level, Barcelona win 7.
- 1 MAL 3 BAR 2
- 2 MAL 1 BAR 1
- 3 MAL 1 BAR 1
- 4 MAL 0 BAR 5
- 5 MAL 0 BAR 3
- 6 MAL 0 BAR 3
- 7 MAL 0 BAR 2
- 8 MAL 1 BAR 3
- 9 MAL 2 BAR 3
- 10 MAL 2 BAR 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 15%, 18% end level, Barcelona win 67%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Málaga by 2 | 3.4% |
| Málaga by 1 | 9.8% |
| Draw | 18.2% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 23.1% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 20.6% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 23.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 14 | 1 | 1.09 | −0.09 |
 Barcelona | 11 | 2 | 2.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed scored from a shot | 0.91 |
| 31' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 43' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 50' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% BAR |
| 2 | 11' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% BAR |
| 3 | 31' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +26% MAL |
| 4 | 43' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MAL |
| 5 | 43' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% MAL |
| 6 | 50' | The game turned hereLionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +26% BAR |
| 7 | 72' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BAR |
| 8 | 84' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +9% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 14% · draw 21% · Barcelona 66%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 15% · draw 18% · Barcelona 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Sporting 5–1 Real Sociedad Jan 22, 2016 · replay 98% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–0 Celta Jan 23, 2016 · replay 98% for Rayo
- Espanyol 2–2 Villarreal Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Granada 3–2 Getafe Jan 23, 2016 · replay 73% for Granada
- Athletic 5–2 Eibar Jan 24, 2016 · replay 38% for Athletic
- Atlético 0–0 Sevilla Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Deportivo 1–1 Valencia Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Betis 1–1 Real Madrid Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Levante 3–2 Las Palmas Jan 25, 2016 · replay 72% for Levante