Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 25, 2016
Levante 3–2 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Las Palmas 3–2, and the replays lean Levante’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Las Palmas, 2 end level. Levante made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 3 | 1.69 |
 Las Palmas | 2 | 1.07 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Levante lucky · −28 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 6, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 2.
- 1 LEV 2 LPA 1
- 2 LEV 2 LPA 1
- 3 LEV 3 LPA 1
- 4 LEV 2 LPA 0
- 5 LEV 4 LPA 1
- 6 LEV 4 LPA 0
- 7 LEV 1 LPA 1
- 8 LEV 1 LPA 1
- 9 LEV 0 LPA 2
- 10 LEV 0 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 61%, 21% end level, Las Palmas win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 17.3% |
| Levante by 2 | 18.5% |
| Levante by 1 | 25.5% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 11.9% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 3.9% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 12 | 3 | 1.69 | +1.31 |
 Las Palmas | 13 | 2 | 1.07 | +0.93 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shot | 0.71 |
| 46' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 48' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 62' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 65' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 83' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LEV |
| 2 | 24' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +7% LEV |
| 3 | 37' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% LEV |
| 4 | 46' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +11% LEV |
| 5 | 48' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +10% LPA |
| 6 | 60' | David Simón Rodríguez Santana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% LEV |
| 7 | 62' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +8% LEV |
| 8 | 65' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 56% · draw 24% · Las Palmas 20%
- Final margin
- Levante by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 61% · draw 21% · Las Palmas 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Levante · Las Palmas
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- Málaga 1–2 Barcelona Jan 23, 2016 · replay 76% for Barcelona
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