Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Rayo 3–0 Celta: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Celta 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Rayo win 10 of 10. Rayo made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 3.11 |
 Celta Vigo | 0 | 0.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Rayo about even · −2 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 10, 0 end level, Celta win 0.
- 1 RAY 1 CEL 0
- 2 RAY 2 CEL 0
- 3 RAY 4 CEL 1
- 4 RAY 3 CEL 0
- 5 RAY 5 CEL 1
- 6 RAY 4 CEL 0
- 7 RAY 5 CEL 0
- 8 RAY 6 CEL 0
- 9 RAY 6 CEL 0
- 10 RAY 8 CEL 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 98%, 2% end level, Celta win 0%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 76.4% |
| Rayo by 2 | 14.1% |
| Rayo by 1 | 7.2% |
| Draw | 2.1% |
| Celta by 1 | 0.2% |
| Celta by 2 | 0.1% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 26 | 3 | 3.11 | −0.11 |
 Celta | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | −0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 25' | Roberto Román Triguero scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 35' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 45' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.63 |
| 52' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 58' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% CEL |
| 2 | 4' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CEL |
| 3 | 15' | Joaquín José Marín Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 15' | Joaquín José Marín Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% CEL |
| 5 | 20' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CEL |
| 6 | 20' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +16% RAY |
| 7 | 25' | Roberto Román Triguero scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +12% RAY |
| 8 | 35' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 99% · draw 1% · Celta 0%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 98% · draw 2% · Celta 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Sporting 5–1 Real Sociedad Jan 22, 2016 · replay 98% for Sporting
- Espanyol 2–2 Villarreal Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Granada 3–2 Getafe Jan 23, 2016 · replay 73% for Granada
- Málaga 1–2 Barcelona Jan 23, 2016 · replay 76% for Barcelona
- Athletic 5–2 Eibar Jan 24, 2016 · replay 38% for Athletic
- Atlético 0–0 Sevilla Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Deportivo 1–1 Valencia Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Betis 1–1 Real Madrid Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Levante 3–2 Las Palmas Jan 25, 2016 · replay 72% for Levante