luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 22, 2016

Sporting 5–1 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?

Sporting beat Real Sociedad 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sporting win 10 of 10. Sporting made the better chances: 4.7 expected goals to 1.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Sporting Gijón 5 4.68
Real Sociedad 1 1.32

January 22, 2016 · Estadio Municipal El Molinón · Referee: David Fernández Borbalan

Luck index +2 Sporting about even · −2 Real Sociedad

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sporting win 10, 0 end level, Real Sociedad win 0.

  1. 1 SPO 3 RSO 1
  2. 2 SPO 7 RSO 4
  3. 3 SPO 4 RSO 0
  4. 4 SPO 4 RSO 0
  5. 5 SPO 5 RSO 0
  6. 6 SPO 6 RSO 0
  7. 7 SPO 7 RSO 1
  8. 8 SPO 9 RSO 2
  9. 9 SPO 8 RSO 0
  10. 10 SPO 10 RSO 0

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Sporting win 97%, 2% end level, Real Sociedad win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 4.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Sporting by 3+86.3%
Sporting by 27.2%
Sporting by 13.9%
Draw1.7%
Real Sociedad by 10.9%
Real Sociedad by 20.1%
Real Sociedad by 3+0.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sporting1354.68+0.32
Real Sociedad911.32−0.32

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
0'Carlos Carmona Bonet scored from a shot0.91
8'Daniel Arnaud N''Di scored from a shot0.60
36'Aritz Elustondo Irribaria didn’t score from a shot0.34
36'Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a shot0.06
43'Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot0.73
46'Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shot0.64
48'Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shot0.33
52'Carlos Carmona Bonet didn’t score from a shot0.42
52'Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot0.89
80'Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot0.20

When it happened

Sporting’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Sporting was ahead in it, below while Real Sociedad was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 0' Carlos Carmona Bonet scored from a shotFinishing · 91% chance +2% SPO
2 8' Daniel Arnaud N''Di scored from a shotFinishing · 60% chance +5% SPO
3 36' Aritz Elustondo Irribaria didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance +4% SPO
4 36' Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +11% RSO
5 43' Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shotFinishing · 73% chance +3% SPO
6 46' Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 64% chance +2% RSO
7 48' Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance +4% SPO
8 48' Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance +3% SPO

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sporting 99% · draw 1% · Real Sociedad 0%

Final margin
Sporting by 4
Luck in goals
0.5 for Sporting
Luck-adjusted margin
Sporting by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Sporting 97% · draw 2% · Real Sociedad 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Real Sociedad

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