Matchday 21 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 24, 2016
Betis 1–1 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Betis and Real Madrid drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Betis win 0 of 10, Real Madrid 9, and 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 0.38 |
 Real Madrid | 1 | 3.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Betis lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 0, 1 ends level, Real Madrid win 9.
- 1 BET 1 RMA 1
- 2 BET 0 RMA 6
- 3 BET 0 RMA 4
- 4 BET 0 RMA 4
- 5 BET 0 RMA 3
- 6 BET 1 RMA 4
- 7 BET 0 RMA 2
- 8 BET 0 RMA 2
- 9 BET 0 RMA 1
- 10 BET 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 3%, 9% end level, Real Madrid win 88%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.3% |
| Betis by 1 | 2.8% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 17.5% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 23.6% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 46.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 5 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.62 |
 Real Madrid | 20 | 1 | 3.31 | −2.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Álvaro Cejudo Carmona scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 70' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.95 |
| 78' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 86' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Álvaro Cejudo Carmona scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +21% BET |
| 2 | 31' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% BET |
| 3 | 33' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% BET |
| 4 | 49' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% BET |
| 5 | 54' | James David Rodríguez Rubio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% BET |
| 6 | 78' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +23% BET |
| 7 | 86' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +22% BET |
| 8 | 90' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 1% · draw 3% · Real Madrid 96%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 3% · draw 9% · Real Madrid 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Sporting 5–1 Real Sociedad Jan 22, 2016 · replay 98% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–0 Celta Jan 23, 2016 · replay 98% for Rayo
- Espanyol 2–2 Villarreal Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Granada 3–2 Getafe Jan 23, 2016 · replay 73% for Granada
- Málaga 1–2 Barcelona Jan 23, 2016 · replay 76% for Barcelona
- Athletic 5–2 Eibar Jan 24, 2016 · replay 38% for Athletic
- Atlético 0–0 Sevilla Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Deportivo 1–1 Valencia Jan 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Levante 3–2 Las Palmas Jan 25, 2016 · replay 72% for Levante