Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 14, 2016
Athletic 3–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Sevilla 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 3 | 1.83 |
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Athletic about even · −24 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 7, 2 end level, Sevilla win 1.
- 1 ATH 2 SEV 1
- 2 ATH 3 SEV 2
- 3 ATH 2 SEV 0
- 4 ATH 3 SEV 1
- 5 ATH 3 SEV 0
- 6 ATH 4 SEV 1
- 7 ATH 4 SEV 0
- 8 ATH 1 SEV 1
- 9 ATH 1 SEV 1
- 10 ATH 2 SEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 66%, 20% end level, Sevilla win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 24.0% |
| Athletic by 2 | 18.4% |
| Athletic by 1 | 23.6% |
| Draw | 20.2% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 9.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 3.1% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 14 | 3 | 1.83 | +1.17 |
 Sevilla | 8 | 1 | 1.24 | −0.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.55 |
| 30' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 41' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 45' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 54' | Juan Muñoz Muñoz scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 70' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SEV |
| 2 | 10' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SEV |
| 3 | 10' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +10% ATH |
| 4 | 14' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% SEV |
| 5 | 30' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +9% ATH |
| 6 | 41' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +6% ATH |
| 7 | 54' | Juan Muñoz Muñoz scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +5% SEV |
| 8 | 70' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 76% · draw 16% · Sevilla 8%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 66% · draw 20% · Sevilla 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad May 13, 2016 · replay 57% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 0–2 Real Madrid May 14, 2016 · replay 85% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 2–0 Celta May 14, 2016 · replay 80% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Barcelona May 14, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 4–2 Eibar May 15, 2016 · replay 70% for Espanyol
- Málaga 4–1 Las Palmas May 15, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Sporting 2–0 Villarreal May 15, 2016 · replay 80% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–1 Levante May 15, 2016 · replay 75% for Rayo
- Betis 2–1 Getafe May 15, 2016 · replay 65% for Betis