Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Betis 2–1 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Getafe 2–1, and the replays lean Betis’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Getafe, 2 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 2 | 1.70 |
 Getafe | 1 | 1.39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Betis lucky · −35 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 6, 2 end level, Getafe win 2.
- 1 BET 3 GET 2
- 2 BET 3 GET 2
- 3 BET 3 GET 1
- 4 BET 3 GET 1
- 5 BET 4 GET 1
- 6 BET 4 GET 0
- 7 BET 2 GET 2
- 8 BET 3 GET 3
- 9 BET 1 GET 3
- 10 BET 0 GET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 55%, 21% end level, Getafe win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 16.9% |
| Betis by 2 | 16.5% |
| Betis by 1 | 21.8% |
| Draw | 20.6% |
| Getafe by 1 | 13.7% |
| Getafe by 2 | 7.1% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 7 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.70 | +0.30 |
 Getafe | 14 | 1 | 1.39 | −0.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 53' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 55' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 72' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 83' | Álvaro Medrán Just scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% BET |
| 2 | 24' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BET |
| 3 | 34' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +10% GET |
| 4 | 46' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BET |
| 5 | 53' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +17% BET |
| 6 | 55' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +28% BET |
| 7 | 66' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BET |
| 8 | 83' | Álvaro Medrán Just scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 46% · draw 27% · Getafe 27%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 55% · draw 21% · Getafe 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad May 13, 2016 · replay 57% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 0–2 Real Madrid May 14, 2016 · replay 85% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Sevilla May 14, 2016 · replay 76% for Athletic
- Atlético 2–0 Celta May 14, 2016 · replay 80% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Barcelona May 14, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 4–2 Eibar May 15, 2016 · replay 70% for Espanyol
- Málaga 4–1 Las Palmas May 15, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Sporting 2–0 Villarreal May 15, 2016 · replay 80% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–1 Levante May 15, 2016 · replay 75% for Rayo