Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Málaga 4–1 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Las Palmas 4–1, and the replays lean Málaga’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Las Palmas, 2 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 4 | 2.17 |
 Las Palmas | 1 | 1.68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Málaga lucky · −32 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 6, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 2.
- 1 MAL 3 LPA 2
- 2 MAL 2 LPA 1
- 3 MAL 3 LPA 1
- 4 MAL 2 LPA 0
- 5 MAL 4 LPA 1
- 6 MAL 5 LPA 1
- 7 MAL 0 LPA 0
- 8 MAL 1 LPA 1
- 9 MAL 1 LPA 3
- 10 MAL 2 LPA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 58%, 19% end level, Las Palmas win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 21.0% |
| Málaga by 2 | 17.0% |
| Málaga by 1 | 20.3% |
| Draw | 18.5% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 12.8% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 7.0% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 14 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.17 | +1.83 |
 Las Palmas | 12 | 1 | 1.68 | −0.68 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Duje Čop scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 30' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 45' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 83' | Christian Atsu Twasam scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 85' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Duje Čop scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +20% MAL |
| 2 | 30' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +16% LPA |
| 3 | 37' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% MAL |
| 4 | 40' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% MAL |
| 5 | 45' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% MAL |
| 6 | 52' | Pedro Bigas Rigo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% MAL |
| 7 | 61' | Nabil El Zhar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% MAL |
| 8 | 77' | Nabil El Zhar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 74% · draw 15% · Las Palmas 11%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 58% · draw 19% · Las Palmas 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Málaga · Las Palmas
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