Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 14, 2016
Deportivo 0–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Deportivo 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 0.81 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 1.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Real Madrid about even · −15 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 1, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 7.
- 1 DEP 2 RMA 1
- 2 DEP 1 RMA 1
- 3 DEP 1 RMA 1
- 4 DEP 0 RMA 5
- 5 DEP 1 RMA 5
- 6 DEP 1 RMA 4
- 7 DEP 1 RMA 3
- 8 DEP 1 RMA 3
- 9 DEP 1 RMA 2
- 10 DEP 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 7%, 15% end level, Real Madrid win 77%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 1.2% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 5.8% |
| Draw | 15.2% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 22.8% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 22.6% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 32.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 0.81 | −0.81 |
 Real Madrid | 16 | 2 | 1.84 | +0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.65 |
| 24' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 44' | Carlos Henrique Casimiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 71' | Roberto Suárez Pier didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% DEP |
| 2 | 6' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 65% chance | +9% RMA |
| 3 | 24' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +16% RMA |
| 4 | 28' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% DEP |
| 5 | 29' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% DEP |
| 6 | 44' | Carlos Henrique Casimiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +2% DEP |
| 7 | 58' | Manuel Pablo García Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +2% RMA |
| 8 | 71' | Roberto Suárez Pier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +4% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 4% · draw 10% · Real Madrid 85%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 7% · draw 15% · Real Madrid 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad May 13, 2016 · replay 57% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 3–1 Sevilla May 14, 2016 · replay 76% for Athletic
- Atlético 2–0 Celta May 14, 2016 · replay 80% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Barcelona May 14, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 4–2 Eibar May 15, 2016 · replay 70% for Espanyol
- Málaga 4–1 Las Palmas May 15, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Sporting 2–0 Villarreal May 15, 2016 · replay 80% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–1 Levante May 15, 2016 · replay 75% for Rayo
- Betis 2–1 Getafe May 15, 2016 · replay 65% for Betis