Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Rayo 3–1 Levante: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Levante 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Rayo win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 1.86 |
 Levante | 1 | 1.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Rayo about even · −25 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 7, 2 end level, Levante win 1.
- 1 RAY 2 LEV 1
- 2 RAY 2 LEV 1
- 3 RAY 4 LEV 2
- 4 RAY 2 LEV 0
- 5 RAY 3 LEV 0
- 6 RAY 5 LEV 1
- 7 RAY 6 LEV 1
- 8 RAY 1 LEV 1
- 9 RAY 1 LEV 1
- 10 RAY 2 LEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 67%, 17% end level, Levante win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 27.8% |
| Rayo by 2 | 19.0% |
| Rayo by 1 | 20.0% |
| Draw | 17.1% |
| Levante by 1 | 10.0% |
| Levante by 2 | 4.6% |
| Levante by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 19 | 3 | 1.86 | +1.14 |
 Levante | 11 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.60 | −0.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 22' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 41' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 59' | José Antonio García Rabasco scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 72' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +22% RAY |
| 2 | 19' | Simão Mate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% RAY |
| 3 | 22' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +12% RAY |
| 4 | 41' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +1% LEV |
| 5 | 59' | José Antonio García Rabasco scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% LEV |
| 6 | 67' | Jordi Xumetra Feliu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% RAY |
| 7 | 67' | Jordi Xumetra Feliu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +8% RAY |
| 8 | 72' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +4% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 70% · draw 18% · Levante 12%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 67% · draw 17% · Levante 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad May 13, 2016 · replay 57% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 0–2 Real Madrid May 14, 2016 · replay 85% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Sevilla May 14, 2016 · replay 76% for Athletic
- Atlético 2–0 Celta May 14, 2016 · replay 80% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Barcelona May 14, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 4–2 Eibar May 15, 2016 · replay 70% for Espanyol
- Málaga 4–1 Las Palmas May 15, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Sporting 2–0 Villarreal May 15, 2016 · replay 80% for Sporting
- Betis 2–1 Getafe May 15, 2016 · replay 65% for Betis