Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 14, 2016
Atlético 2–0 Celta: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Celta 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1.37 |
 Celta Vigo | 0 | 0.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Atlético about even · −20 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 7, 2 end level, Celta win 1.
- 1 ATM 2 CEL 1
- 2 ATM 1 CEL 0
- 3 ATM 1 CEL 0
- 4 ATM 2 CEL 0
- 5 ATM 2 CEL 0
- 6 ATM 3 CEL 0
- 7 ATM 6 CEL 2
- 8 ATM 1 CEL 1
- 9 ATM 1 CEL 1
- 10 ATM 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 69%, 23% end level, Celta win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 19.6% |
| Atlético by 2 | 21.2% |
| Atlético by 1 | 28.0% |
| Draw | 23.0% |
| Celta by 1 | 6.7% |
| Celta by 2 | 1.3% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 11 | 2 | 1.37 | +0.63 |
 Celta | 7 | 0 | 0.46 | −0.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 50' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 53' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.70 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% CEL |
| 2 | 14' | Marcelo Alfonso Díaz Rojas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATM |
| 3 | 15' | Marcelo Alfonso Díaz Rojas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ATM |
| 4 | 15' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 5 | 36' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ATM |
| 6 | 44' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATM |
| 7 | 50' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +26% ATM |
| 8 | 53' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +3% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 89% · draw 8% · Celta 3%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 69% · draw 23% · Celta 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad May 13, 2016 · replay 57% for Real Sociedad
- Deportivo 0–2 Real Madrid May 14, 2016 · replay 85% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Sevilla May 14, 2016 · replay 76% for Athletic
- Granada 0–3 Barcelona May 14, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 4–2 Eibar May 15, 2016 · replay 70% for Espanyol
- Málaga 4–1 Las Palmas May 15, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Sporting 2–0 Villarreal May 15, 2016 · replay 80% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–1 Levante May 15, 2016 · replay 75% for Rayo
- Betis 2–1 Getafe May 15, 2016 · replay 65% for Betis