Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 13, 2016
Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Valencia 1–0, and the replays lean Real Sociedad’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Valencia, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 0 | 0.81 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 1.04 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Real Sociedad lucky · −43 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 3, 3 end level, Real Sociedad win 4.
- 1 VAL 1 RSO 0
- 2 VAL 2 RSO 1
- 3 VAL 2 RSO 0
- 4 VAL 0 RSO 0
- 5 VAL 0 RSO 0
- 6 VAL 1 RSO 1
- 7 VAL 0 RSO 3
- 8 VAL 1 RSO 3
- 9 VAL 0 RSO 1
- 10 VAL 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 28%, 31% end level, Real Sociedad win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 2.3% |
| Valencia by 2 | 6.4% |
| Valencia by 1 | 19.2% |
| Draw | 30.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 24.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 11.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 8 | 0 | 0.81 | −0.81 |
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 1 | 1.04 | −0.04 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 72' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 93' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46' | Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RSO |
| 2 | 60' | Aritz Elustondo Irribaria didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% VAL |
| 3 | 72' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +12% RSO |
| 4 | 88' | David Zurutuza Veillet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% VAL |
| 5 | 89' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% RSO |
| 6 | 90' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% RSO |
| 7 | 93' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% VAL |
| 8 | 93' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +29% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 28% · draw 32% · Real Sociedad 41%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 28% · draw 31% · Real Sociedad 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2015-16
- Deportivo 0–2 Real Madrid May 14, 2016 · replay 85% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Sevilla May 14, 2016 · replay 76% for Athletic
- Atlético 2–0 Celta May 14, 2016 · replay 80% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Barcelona May 14, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 4–2 Eibar May 15, 2016 · replay 70% for Espanyol
- Málaga 4–1 Las Palmas May 15, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Sporting 2–0 Villarreal May 15, 2016 · replay 80% for Sporting
- Rayo 3–1 Levante May 15, 2016 · replay 75% for Rayo
- Betis 2–1 Getafe May 15, 2016 · replay 65% for Betis