Matchday 38 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 15, 2016
Espanyol 4–2 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Eibar 4–2, and the replays lean Espanyol’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Eibar, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (2.2 expected goals to 2.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 4 | 2.17 |
 Eibar | 2 | 2.11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Espanyol lucky · −30 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 6, 2 end level, Eibar win 2.
- 1 ESP 4 EIB 3
- 2 ESP 3 EIB 2
- 3 ESP 3 EIB 1
- 4 ESP 2 EIB 0
- 5 ESP 5 EIB 2
- 6 ESP 6 EIB 1
- 7 ESP 3 EIB 3
- 8 ESP 2 EIB 2
- 9 ESP 0 EIB 2
- 10 ESP 1 EIB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 61%, 17% end level, Eibar win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 23.3% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 17.0% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 17.4% |
| Eibar by 1 | 12.0% |
| Eibar by 2 | 6.4% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 3.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 10 | 4 | 2.17 | +1.83 |
 Eibar | 13 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.11 | −0.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shot | 0.92 |
| 31' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 56' | Borja González Tomás scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 65' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 75' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 89' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shot | 0.79 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ESP |
| 2 | 12' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shotFinishing · 92% chance | +2% ESP |
| 3 | 27' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% EIB |
| 4 | 28' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% ESP |
| 5 | 31' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +7% ESP |
| 6 | 56' | Borja González Tomás scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% EIB |
| 7 | 58' | Papa Kouly Diop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +2% EIB |
| 8 | 65' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +9% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 64% · draw 22% · Eibar 14%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 61% · draw 17% · Eibar 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 38 matches, 2015-16 · Espanyol · Eibar
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