Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Newcastle 1–2 Watford: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Newcastle 2–1, but the replays call it even: Watford win 4 of 10, Newcastle 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 1 | 1.38 |
 Watford | 2 | 1.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Watford lucky · −46 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 3, 3 end level, Watford win 4.
- 1 NEW 2 WAT 1
- 2 NEW 1 WAT 0
- 3 NEW 2 WAT 0
- 4 NEW 1 WAT 1
- 5 NEW 2 WAT 2
- 6 NEW 0 WAT 0
- 7 NEW 0 WAT 3
- 8 NEW 0 WAT 2
- 9 NEW 0 WAT 1
- 10 NEW 2 WAT 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 34%, 25% end level, Watford win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 4.7% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 9.2% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 19.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
| Watford by 1 | 21.8% |
| Watford by 2 | 12.3% |
| Watford by 3+ | 7.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 16 | 1 | 1.38 | −0.38 |
 Watford | 12 | 2 | 1.16 | +0.84 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 9' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 27' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 61' | Daryl Janmaat scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% NEW |
| 2 | 6' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +9% WAT |
| 3 | 9' | The game turned hereOdion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +23% WAT |
| 4 | 13' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% WAT |
| 5 | 27' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +11% WAT |
| 6 | 61' | Daryl Janmaat scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +12% NEW |
| 7 | 68' | Siem Stefan de Jong didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% WAT |
| 8 | 78' | Siem Stefan de Jong didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 41% · draw 29% · Watford 31%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 34% · draw 25% · Watford 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Newcastle · Watford
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Chelsea
- Stoke 2–2 Leicester Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Aston Villa 0–1 West Brom Sep 19, 2015 · replay 62% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 West Ham Sep 19, 2015 · replay 29% for West Ham
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland Sep 19, 2015 · replay 67% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–0 Everton Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 2–3 Man United Sep 20, 2015 · replay 48% for Man United
- Liverpool 1–1 Norwich Sep 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 12% draws
- Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2015 · replay 61% for Tottenham