Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 1–0, and the replays lean Tottenham’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0.95 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Tottenham lucky · −39 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 4, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 3.
- 1 TOT 1 CRY 0
- 2 TOT 1 CRY 0
- 3 TOT 3 CRY 1
- 4 TOT 3 CRY 0
- 5 TOT 0 CRY 0
- 6 TOT 1 CRY 1
- 7 TOT 1 CRY 1
- 8 TOT 0 CRY 2
- 9 TOT 0 CRY 1
- 10 TOT 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 44%, 33% end level, Crystal Palace win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 6.1% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 12.7% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 25.7% |
| Draw | 32.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 16.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 5.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 22 | 1 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
 Crystal Palace | 11 | 0 | 0.60 | −0.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 67' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CRY |
| 2 | 37' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% TOT |
| 3 | 52' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CRY |
| 4 | 53' | Toby Alderweireld didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CRY |
| 5 | 64' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% TOT |
| 6 | 64' | Brede Hangeland didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% TOT |
| 7 | 64' | Fraizer Campbell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +9% TOT |
| 8 | 67' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +33% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 43% · draw 33% · Crystal Palace 24%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 44% · draw 33% · Crystal Palace 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Chelsea
- Stoke 2–2 Leicester Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Watford Sep 19, 2015 · replay 54% for Watford
- Aston Villa 0–1 West Brom Sep 19, 2015 · replay 62% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 West Ham Sep 19, 2015 · replay 29% for West Ham
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland Sep 19, 2015 · replay 67% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–0 Everton Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 2–3 Man United Sep 20, 2015 · replay 48% for Man United
- Liverpool 1–1 Norwich Sep 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 12% draws