Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Liverpool 1–1 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and Norwich drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 8 of 10, Norwich 1, and 1 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 | 2.47 |
 Norwich City | 1 | 0.45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −40 Liverpool unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 8, 1 ends level, Norwich win 1.
- 1 LIV 1 NOR 0
- 2 LIV 2 NOR 1
- 3 LIV 2 NOR 0
- 4 LIV 2 NOR 0
- 5 LIV 3 NOR 0
- 6 LIV 3 NOR 0
- 7 LIV 4 NOR 0
- 8 LIV 5 NOR 0
- 9 LIV 1 NOR 1
- 10 LIV 1 NOR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 84%, 12% end level, Norwich win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 39.1% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 23.2% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 21.2% |
| Draw | 12.0% |
| Norwich by 1 | 3.6% |
| Norwich by 2 | 0.7% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 23 | 1 | 2.47 | −1.47 |
 Norwich | 7 | 1 | 0.45 | +0.55 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 47' | Daniel William John Ings scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 60' | Russell Martin scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 77' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 93' | Emre Can didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% NOR |
| 2 | 33' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% NOR |
| 3 | 47' | Daniel William John Ings scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +25% LIV |
| 4 | 60' | Russell Martin scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +31% NOR |
| 5 | 64' | Matt Jarvis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +9% LIV |
| 6 | 77' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +19% NOR |
| 7 | 90' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% NOR |
| 8 | 93' | Emre Can didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +26% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 84% · draw 12% · Norwich 4%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 84% · draw 12% · Norwich 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Liverpool · Norwich
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