Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Swansea 0–0 Everton: who deserved to win?
Swansea and Everton drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Swansea win 2 of 10, Everton 6, and 2 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.75 |
 Everton | 0 | 1.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Swansea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 2, 2 end level, Everton win 6.
- 1 SWA 1 EVE 0
- 2 SWA 4 EVE 2
- 3 SWA 1 EVE 1
- 4 SWA 0 EVE 0
- 5 SWA 0 EVE 4
- 6 SWA 0 EVE 3
- 7 SWA 1 EVE 3
- 8 SWA 0 EVE 2
- 9 SWA 1 EVE 2
- 10 SWA 1 EVE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 17%, 24% end level, Everton win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 4.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 11.8% |
| Draw | 24.0% |
| Everton by 1 | 25.8% |
| Everton by 2 | 18.0% |
| Everton by 3+ | 15.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 12 | 0 | 0.75 | −0.75 |
 Everton | 17 | 0 | 1.66 | −1.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% EVE |
| 2 | 19' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% SWA |
| 3 | 29' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chanceRomelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +10% SWA |
| 4 | 45' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% EVE |
| 5 | 52' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% SWA |
| 6 | 57' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% SWA |
| 7 | 75' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% SWA |
| 8 | 93' | Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 16% · draw 24% · Everton 60%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 17% · draw 24% · Everton 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Everton
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Chelsea
- Stoke 2–2 Leicester Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Watford Sep 19, 2015 · replay 54% for Watford
- Aston Villa 0–1 West Brom Sep 19, 2015 · replay 62% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 West Ham Sep 19, 2015 · replay 29% for West Ham
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland Sep 19, 2015 · replay 67% for Bournemouth
- Southampton 2–3 Man United Sep 20, 2015 · replay 48% for Man United
- Liverpool 1–1 Norwich Sep 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 12% draws
- Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2015 · replay 61% for Tottenham