Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Man City 1–2 West Ham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Man City 2–1, but the replays lean toward Man City: 6 wins in 10 to West Ham’s 2, 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 1 | 2.53 |
 West Ham United | 2 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +71 West Ham very lucky · −71 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 6, 2 end level, West Ham win 2.
- 1 MCI 2 WHU 1
- 2 MCI 1 WHU 0
- 3 MCI 2 WHU 1
- 4 MCI 2 WHU 0
- 5 MCI 3 WHU 0
- 6 MCI 5 WHU 1
- 7 MCI 0 WHU 0
- 8 MCI 2 WHU 2
- 9 MCI 2 WHU 4
- 10 MCI 2 WHU 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 61%, 21% end level, West Ham win 18%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 18.9% |
| Man City by 2 | 17.4% |
| Man City by 1 | 24.4% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| West Ham by 1 | 12.3% |
| West Ham by 2 | 4.3% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 27 | 1 | 2.53 | −1.53 |
 West Ham | 6 | 2 | 0.79 | +1.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Victor Moses scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 30' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 46' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 54' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | The game turned hereVictor Moses scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +24% WHU |
| 2 | 30' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +9% WHU |
| 3 | 39' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +4% WHU |
| 4 | 46' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +16% MCI |
| 5 | 54' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +15% WHU |
| 6 | 67' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% WHU |
| 7 | 71' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% WHU |
| 8 | 84' | Nicolás Hernán Otamendi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 77% · draw 15% · West Ham 8%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 61% · draw 21% · West Ham 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 29% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Chelsea
- Stoke 2–2 Leicester Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Watford Sep 19, 2015 · replay 54% for Watford
- Aston Villa 0–1 West Brom Sep 19, 2015 · replay 62% for West Brom
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland Sep 19, 2015 · replay 67% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–0 Everton Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 2–3 Man United Sep 20, 2015 · replay 48% for Man United
- Liverpool 1–1 Norwich Sep 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 12% draws
- Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2015 · replay 61% for Tottenham