Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 20, 2015
Southampton 2–3 Man United: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Southampton 3–2, but the replays call it even: Man United win 4 of 10, Southampton 4, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.8 expected goals to 1.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 2 | 1.77 |
 Manchester United | 3 | 1.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Man United lucky · −52 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 4, 2 end level, Man United win 4.
- 1 SOU 2 MUN 1
- 2 SOU 2 MUN 1
- 3 SOU 3 MUN 1
- 4 SOU 3 MUN 0
- 5 SOU 2 MUN 2
- 6 SOU 1 MUN 1
- 7 SOU 0 MUN 3
- 8 SOU 1 MUN 3
- 9 SOU 1 MUN 2
- 10 SOU 1 MUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 41%, 23% end level, Man United win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 9.0% |
| Southampton by 2 | 12.6% |
| Southampton by 1 | 19.1% |
| Draw | 22.7% |
| Man United by 1 | 19.1% |
| Man United by 2 | 10.5% |
| Man United by 3+ | 7.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 16 | 2 | 1.77 | +0.23 |
 Man United | 10 | 3 | 1.62 | +1.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 12' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 33' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 49' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 67' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 85' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +7% MUN |
| 2 | 12' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +12% SOU |
| 3 | 33' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +19% MUN |
| 4 | 41' | Morgan Schneiderlin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% SOU |
| 5 | 49' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +19% MUN |
| 6 | 67' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +10% MUN |
| 7 | 88' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% MUN |
| 8 | 90' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 41% · draw 24% · Man United 35%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 41% · draw 23% · Man United 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Man United
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Chelsea
- Stoke 2–2 Leicester Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Watford Sep 19, 2015 · replay 54% for Watford
- Aston Villa 0–1 West Brom Sep 19, 2015 · replay 62% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 West Ham Sep 19, 2015 · replay 29% for West Ham
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland Sep 19, 2015 · replay 67% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–0 Everton Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Liverpool 1–1 Norwich Sep 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 12% draws
- Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2015 · replay 61% for Tottenham