Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Sunderland 2–0, and the replays lean Bournemouth’s way: 5 wins in 10, 1 for Sunderland, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.6 expected goals to 0.4).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 0.57 |
 Sunderland | 0 | 0.42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Bournemouth lucky · −33 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 5, 4 end level, Sunderland win 1.
- 1 BOU 1 SUN 0
- 2 BOU 1 SUN 0
- 3 BOU 1 SUN 0
- 4 BOU 3 SUN 1
- 5 BOU 2 SUN 0
- 6 BOU 0 SUN 0
- 7 BOU 0 SUN 0
- 8 BOU 0 SUN 0
- 9 BOU 0 SUN 0
- 10 BOU 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 47%, 39% end level, Sunderland win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 4.6% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 12.3% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 30.3% |
| Draw | 39.1% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 11.8% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 1.7% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 15 | 2 | 0.57 | +1.43 |
 Sunderland | 9 | 0 | 0.42 | −0.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Callum Wilson scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 8' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shot | 0.02 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Callum Wilson scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +20% BOU |
| 2 | 8' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +12% BOU |
| 3 | 10' | Ola Toivonen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +0% BOU |
| 4 | 28' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +0% BOU |
| 5 | 32' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% SUN |
| 6 | 39' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +3% BOU |
| 7 | 52' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% BOU |
| 8 | 52' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 76% · draw 18% · Sunderland 6%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 47% · draw 39% · Sunderland 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Chelsea
- Stoke 2–2 Leicester Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Watford Sep 19, 2015 · replay 54% for Watford
- Aston Villa 0–1 West Brom Sep 19, 2015 · replay 62% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 West Ham Sep 19, 2015 · replay 29% for West Ham
- Swansea 0–0 Everton Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 2–3 Man United Sep 20, 2015 · replay 48% for Man United
- Liverpool 1–1 Norwich Sep 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 12% draws
- Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2015 · replay 61% for Tottenham