Matchday 6 · Premier League 2015-16 · September 19, 2015
Aston Villa 0–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Aston Villa 1–0, and the replays lean West Brom’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Aston Villa, 3 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.60 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.92 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 West Brom lucky · −38 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 2, 3 end level, West Brom win 5.
- 1 AVL 1 WBA 0
- 2 AVL 2 WBA 0
- 3 AVL 1 WBA 1
- 4 AVL 0 WBA 0
- 5 AVL 0 WBA 0
- 6 AVL 0 WBA 3
- 7 AVL 0 WBA 2
- 8 AVL 0 WBA 1
- 9 AVL 0 WBA 1
- 10 AVL 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 21%, 33% end level, West Brom win 46%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 4.3% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 16.0% |
| Draw | 33.4% |
| West Brom by 1 | 27.3% |
| West Brom by 2 | 12.6% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 5.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 12 | 0 | 0.60 | −0.60 |
 West Brom | 11 | 1 | 0.92 | +0.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Saido Berahino scored from a shot | 0.27 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% AVL |
| 2 | 7' | Jonathan Grant Evans didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% AVL |
| 3 | 25' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% WBA |
| 4 | 38' | The game turned hereSaido Berahino scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +22% WBA |
| 5 | 63' | Jack Grealish didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% WBA |
| 6 | 71' | Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% WBA |
| 7 | 90' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% WBA |
| 8 | 93' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 22% · draw 34% · West Brom 43%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 21% · draw 33% · West Brom 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · West Brom
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–0 Arsenal Sep 19, 2015 · replay 77% for Chelsea
- Stoke 2–2 Leicester Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–2 Watford Sep 19, 2015 · replay 54% for Watford
- Man City 1–2 West Ham Sep 19, 2015 · replay 29% for West Ham
- Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland Sep 19, 2015 · replay 67% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–0 Everton Sep 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 2–3 Man United Sep 20, 2015 · replay 48% for Man United
- Liverpool 1–1 Norwich Sep 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 12% draws
- Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace Sep 20, 2015 · replay 61% for Tottenham