Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Watford 0–3 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Watford 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 0 | 0.51 |
 Arsenal | 3 | 2.01 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Arsenal about even · −14 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 1, 1 ends level, Arsenal win 8.
- 1 WAT 4 ARS 3
- 2 WAT 1 ARS 1
- 3 WAT 0 ARS 5
- 4 WAT 0 ARS 3
- 5 WAT 0 ARS 3
- 6 WAT 1 ARS 3
- 7 WAT 1 ARS 3
- 8 WAT 0 ARS 1
- 9 WAT 0 ARS 1
- 10 WAT 1 ARS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 7%, 15% end level, Arsenal win 78%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Watford by 2 | 1.1% |
| Watford by 1 | 5.3% |
| Draw | 14.9% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.9% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 23.6% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 30.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 9 | 0 | 0.51 | −0.51 |
 Arsenal | 17 | 3 | 2.01 | +0.99 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 61' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 67' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 73' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% WAT |
| 2 | 7' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WAT |
| 3 | 28' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +12% WAT |
| 4 | 29' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% ARS |
| 5 | 36' | Laurent Koscielny didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% WAT |
| 6 | 61' | The game turned hereAlexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +22% ARS |
| 7 | 67' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +11% ARS |
| 8 | 68' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 1% · draw 6% · Arsenal 93%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 7% · draw 15% · Arsenal 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Arsenal
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- West Brom 1–0 Sunderland Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham Oct 17, 2015 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa Oct 17, 2015 · replay 69% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–0 Liverpool Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Man City 5–1 Bournemouth Oct 17, 2015 · replay 98% for Man City
- Everton 0–3 Man United Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for Man United
- Southampton 2–2 Leicester Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Newcastle 6–2 Norwich Oct 18, 2015 · replay 74% for Newcastle
- Swansea 0–1 Stoke Oct 19, 2015 · replay 75% for Stoke