Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Crystal Palace 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, West Ham win 6 of 10, 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.24 |
 West Ham United | 3 | 2.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 West Ham about even · −24 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 2, 2 end level, West Ham win 6.
- 1 CRY 1 WHU 0
- 2 CRY 3 WHU 1
- 3 CRY 2 WHU 2
- 4 CRY 0 WHU 0
- 5 CRY 1 WHU 6
- 6 CRY 1 WHU 4
- 7 CRY 2 WHU 5
- 8 CRY 0 WHU 2
- 9 CRY 1 WHU 2
- 10 CRY 2 WHU 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 15%, 18% end level, West Ham win 67%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 4.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 8.9% |
| Draw | 18.2% |
| West Ham by 1 | 20.3% |
| West Ham by 2 | 19.0% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 27.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 7 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.24 | −0.24 |
 West Ham | 22 | 3 | 2.43 | +0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Dimitri Payet didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 21' | Carl Jenkinson scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 24' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 87' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 93' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shot | 0.28 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Dimitri Payet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% CRY |
| 2 | 21' | Carl Jenkinson scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +19% WHU |
| 3 | 24' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% CRY |
| 4 | 29' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CRY |
| 5 | 42' | Brede Hangeland didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% WHU |
| 6 | 62' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% CRY |
| 7 | 66' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CRY |
| 8 | 87' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +20% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 4% · draw 9% · West Ham 86%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 15% · draw 18% · West Ham 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- West Brom 1–0 Sunderland Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for West Brom
- Watford 0–3 Arsenal Oct 17, 2015 · replay 86% for Arsenal
- Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa Oct 17, 2015 · replay 69% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–0 Liverpool Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Man City 5–1 Bournemouth Oct 17, 2015 · replay 98% for Man City
- Everton 0–3 Man United Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for Man United
- Southampton 2–2 Leicester Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Newcastle 6–2 Norwich Oct 18, 2015 · replay 74% for Newcastle
- Swansea 0–1 Stoke Oct 19, 2015 · replay 75% for Stoke