Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Man City 5–1 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Bournemouth 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 10 of 10. Man City made the better chances: 3.7 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 5 | 3.68 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Man City about even · −2 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 10, 0 end level, Bournemouth win 0.
- 1 MCI 3 BOU 2
- 2 MCI 3 BOU 1
- 3 MCI 4 BOU 1
- 4 MCI 4 BOU 0
- 5 MCI 4 BOU 0
- 6 MCI 6 BOU 1
- 7 MCI 5 BOU 0
- 8 MCI 7 BOU 1
- 9 MCI 8 BOU 1
- 10 MCI 8 BOU 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 96%, 3% end level, Bournemouth win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 78.2% |
| Man City by 2 | 11.5% |
| Man City by 1 | 6.4% |
| Draw | 2.9% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 0.8% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 0.1% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 16 | 5 | 3.68 | +1.32 |
 Bournemouth | 8 | 1 | 0.61 | +0.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.78 |
| 10' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony scored from a shot | 0.84 |
| 21' | Glenn Murray scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 28' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 47' | Jesús Navas González didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 47' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 62' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 88' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony scored from a shot | 0.29 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Eunan O''Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% MCI |
| 2 | 6' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% BOU |
| 3 | 6' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shotFinishing · 78% chance | +5% MCI |
| 4 | 10' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony scored from a shotFinishing · 84% chance | +2% MCI |
| 5 | 21' | Glenn Murray scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +11% BOU |
| 6 | 23' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% MCI |
| 7 | 28' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% MCI |
| 8 | 47' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 99% · draw 1% · Bournemouth 0%
- Final margin
- Man City by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 96% · draw 3% · Bournemouth 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- West Brom 1–0 Sunderland Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for West Brom
- Watford 0–3 Arsenal Oct 17, 2015 · replay 86% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham Oct 17, 2015 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa Oct 17, 2015 · replay 69% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–0 Liverpool Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Everton 0–3 Man United Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for Man United
- Southampton 2–2 Leicester Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Newcastle 6–2 Norwich Oct 18, 2015 · replay 74% for Newcastle
- Swansea 0–1 Stoke Oct 19, 2015 · replay 75% for Stoke