Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
West Brom 1–0 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Sunderland 1–0, and the replays lean West Brom’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sunderland, 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 1.48 |
 Sunderland | 0 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 West Brom lucky · −30 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 6, 2 end level, Sunderland win 2.
- 1 WBA 2 SUN 1
- 2 WBA 3 SUN 2
- 3 WBA 2 SUN 1
- 4 WBA 2 SUN 0
- 5 WBA 3 SUN 1
- 6 WBA 3 SUN 0
- 7 WBA 0 SUN 0
- 8 WBA 2 SUN 2
- 9 WBA 0 SUN 2
- 10 WBA 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 58%, 24% end level, Sunderland win 18%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 13.2% |
| West Brom by 2 | 18.1% |
| West Brom by 1 | 26.8% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 12.9% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 3.8% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 9 | 1 | 1.48 | −0.48 |
 Sunderland | 10 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 53' | Saido Berahino scored from a shot | 0.95 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Steven Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% WBA |
| 2 | 11' | Billy Jones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WBA |
| 3 | 11' | Billy Jones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% WBA |
| 4 | 42' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SUN |
| 5 | 47' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SUN |
| 6 | 53' | Saido Berahino scored from a shotFinishing · 95% chance | +1% WBA |
| 7 | 60' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +2% SUN |
| 8 | 86' | Danny Graham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 64% · draw 26% · Sunderland 10%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 58% · draw 24% · Sunderland 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Sunderland
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Watford 0–3 Arsenal Oct 17, 2015 · replay 86% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham Oct 17, 2015 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa Oct 17, 2015 · replay 69% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–0 Liverpool Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Man City 5–1 Bournemouth Oct 17, 2015 · replay 98% for Man City
- Everton 0–3 Man United Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for Man United
- Southampton 2–2 Leicester Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Newcastle 6–2 Norwich Oct 18, 2015 · replay 74% for Newcastle
- Swansea 0–1 Stoke Oct 19, 2015 · replay 75% for Stoke