Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 18, 2015
Newcastle 6–2 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat Norwich 6–2, and the replays lean Newcastle’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Norwich, 2 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 6 | 1.88 |
 Norwich City | 2 | 1.35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Newcastle lucky · −26 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 6, 2 end level, Norwich win 2.
- 1 NEW 2 NOR 1
- 2 NEW 3 NOR 2
- 3 NEW 3 NOR 1
- 4 NEW 2 NOR 0
- 5 NEW 3 NOR 0
- 6 NEW 4 NOR 0
- 7 NEW 1 NOR 1
- 8 NEW 0 NOR 0
- 9 NEW 1 NOR 3
- 10 NEW 2 NOR 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 65%, 19% end level, Norwich win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 23.9% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 18.6% |
| Norwich by 1 | 11.3% |
| Norwich by 2 | 3.8% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 11 | 6 | 1.88 | +4.12 |
 Norwich | 18 | 2 | 1.35 | +0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 19' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 25' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 32' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 33' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 63' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 65' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 84' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Chancel Mbemba Mangulu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +5% NOR |
| 2 | 13' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +16% NEW |
| 3 | 19' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +12% NOR |
| 4 | 25' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +23% NEW |
| 5 | 32' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +11% NEW |
| 6 | 33' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +11% NOR |
| 7 | 52' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% NEW |
| 8 | 63' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 74% · draw 17% · Norwich 9%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 65% · draw 19% · Norwich 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Newcastle · Norwich
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- West Brom 1–0 Sunderland Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for West Brom
- Watford 0–3 Arsenal Oct 17, 2015 · replay 86% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham Oct 17, 2015 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa Oct 17, 2015 · replay 69% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–0 Liverpool Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Man City 5–1 Bournemouth Oct 17, 2015 · replay 98% for Man City
- Everton 0–3 Man United Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for Man United
- Southampton 2–2 Leicester Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Swansea 0–1 Stoke Oct 19, 2015 · replay 75% for Stoke