Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 19, 2015
Swansea 0–1 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Swansea 1–0, and the replays lean Stoke’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Swansea, 3 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.55 |
 Stoke City | 1 | 1.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Stoke lucky · −25 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 1, 3 end level, Stoke win 6.
- 1 SWA 1 STK 0
- 2 SWA 0 STK 0
- 3 SWA 1 STK 1
- 4 SWA 0 STK 0
- 5 SWA 0 STK 4
- 6 SWA 1 STK 3
- 7 SWA 0 STK 2
- 8 SWA 0 STK 1
- 9 SWA 0 STK 1
- 10 SWA 0 STK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 13%, 25% end level, Stoke win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Swansea by 2 | 2.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 9.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Stoke by 1 | 27.9% |
| Stoke by 2 | 19.7% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 14.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 14 | 0 | 0.55 | −0.55 |
 Stoke | 9 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.34 | −0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% STK |
| 2 | 15' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% STK |
| 3 | 34' | Glen Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% SWA |
| 4 | 51' | Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% STK |
| 5 | 66' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% STK |
| 6 | 67' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% SWA |
| 7 | 85' | Éderzito António Macedo Lopes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% STK |
| 8 | 88' | Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +8% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 12% · draw 25% · Stoke 63%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 13% · draw 25% · Stoke 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Stoke
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- West Brom 1–0 Sunderland Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for West Brom
- Watford 0–3 Arsenal Oct 17, 2015 · replay 86% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham Oct 17, 2015 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa Oct 17, 2015 · replay 69% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–0 Liverpool Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Man City 5–1 Bournemouth Oct 17, 2015 · replay 98% for Man City
- Everton 0–3 Man United Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for Man United
- Southampton 2–2 Leicester Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Newcastle 6–2 Norwich Oct 18, 2015 · replay 74% for Newcastle