luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 17, 2015

Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?

Chelsea beat Aston Villa 2–0, and the replays lean Chelsea’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Aston Villa, 3 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6. An own goal helped Chelsea.

Full time

GoalsxG
Chelsea 2 1.10
Aston Villa 0 0.57

October 17, 2015 · Stamford Bridge · Referee: Roger East

Luck index +31 Chelsea lucky · −31 Aston Villa

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chelsea win 5, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 2.

  1. 1 CHE 1 AVL 0
  2. 2 CHE 2 AVL 1
  3. 3 CHE 3 AVL 1
  4. 4 CHE 2 AVL 0
  5. 5 CHE 3 AVL 0
  6. 6 CHE 0 AVL 0
  7. 7 CHE 0 AVL 0
  8. 8 CHE 0 AVL 0
  9. 9 CHE 0 AVL 1
  10. 10 CHE 0 AVL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Chelsea win 53%, 31% end level, Aston Villa win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 2.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Chelsea by 3+9.2%
Chelsea by 215.8%
Chelsea by 128.4%
Draw30.6%
Aston Villa by 112.3%
Aston Villa by 22.8%
Aston Villa by 3+0.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Chelsea911.10−0.10
Aston Villa1100.57−0.57

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
33'Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot0.67

When it happened

Chelsea’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Chelsea was ahead in it, below while Aston Villa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 6' Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% AVL
2 10' Alan Hutton didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% CHE
3 22' Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance +1% CHE
4 31' Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +5% CHE
5 32' John Terry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +2% AVL
6 33' Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 67% chance +9% CHE
7 39' Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% CHE
8 53' Own goal by nan, for ChelseaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +11% CHE

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chelsea 52% · draw 32% · Aston Villa 16%

Final margin
Chelsea by 2
Luck in goals
1.3 for Chelsea
Luck-adjusted margin
Chelsea by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Chelsea 53% · draw 31% · Aston Villa 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Chelsea · Aston Villa

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