Matchday 9 · Premier League 2015-16 · October 17, 2015
Everton 0–3 Man United: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Everton 3–0, and the replays lean Man United’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Everton, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 0 | 1.14 |
 Manchester United | 3 | 1.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Man United lucky · −30 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 2, 2 end level, Man United win 6.
- 1 EVE 1 MUN 0
- 2 EVE 3 MUN 1
- 3 EVE 1 MUN 1
- 4 EVE 0 MUN 0
- 5 EVE 0 MUN 4
- 6 EVE 0 MUN 3
- 7 EVE 1 MUN 3
- 8 EVE 0 MUN 2
- 9 EVE 0 MUN 1
- 10 EVE 1 MUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 18%, 23% end level, Man United win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Everton by 2 | 4.2% |
| Everton by 1 | 12.2% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Man United by 1 | 23.4% |
| Man United by 2 | 18.8% |
| Man United by 3+ | 16.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 15 | 0 | 1.14 | −1.14 |
 Man United | 10 | 3 | 1.32 | +1.68 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Morgan Schneiderlin scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 21' | Ander Herrera Agüera scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 29' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 61' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Morgan Schneiderlin scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +16% MUN |
| 2 | 21' | Ander Herrera Agüera scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +16% MUN |
| 3 | 29' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +5% MUN |
| 4 | 43' | Brendan Joel Zibusiso Galloway didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% MUN |
| 5 | 46' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +3% MUN |
| 6 | 50' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% MUN |
| 7 | 54' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% MUN |
| 8 | 61' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 11% · draw 19% · Man United 70%
- Final margin
- Man United by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 18% · draw 23% · Man United 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- West Brom 1–0 Sunderland Oct 17, 2015 · replay 70% for West Brom
- Watford 0–3 Arsenal Oct 17, 2015 · replay 86% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham Oct 17, 2015 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Chelsea 2–0 Aston Villa Oct 17, 2015 · replay 69% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 0–0 Liverpool Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Man City 5–1 Bournemouth Oct 17, 2015 · replay 98% for Man City
- Southampton 2–2 Leicester Oct 17, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Newcastle 6–2 Norwich Oct 18, 2015 · replay 74% for Newcastle
- Swansea 0–1 Stoke Oct 19, 2015 · replay 75% for Stoke