Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 13, 2016
Stoke 3–1 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Norwich 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Stoke win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.3. An own goal helped Stoke.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 3 | 1.50 |
 Norwich City | 1 | 0.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Stoke about even · −17 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 7, 2 end level, Norwich win 1.
- 1 STK 2 NOR 1
- 2 STK 1 NOR 0
- 3 STK 1 NOR 0
- 4 STK 2 NOR 0
- 5 STK 3 NOR 1
- 6 STK 3 NOR 0
- 7 STK 4 NOR 0
- 8 STK 0 NOR 0
- 9 STK 0 NOR 0
- 10 STK 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 73%, 21% end level, Norwich win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 20.0% |
| Stoke by 2 | 22.6% |
| Stoke by 1 | 30.2% |
| Draw | 20.5% |
| Norwich by 1 | 5.5% |
| Norwich by 2 | 1.1% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 17 | 2 | 1.50 | +0.50 |
 Norwich | 5 | 1 | 0.33 | +0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 54' | Jonathan Howson scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 66' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% NOR |
| 2 | 26' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% NOR |
| 3 | 29' | Ryan Bennett didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% STK |
| 4 | 40' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% NOR |
| 5 | 48' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +17% STK |
| 6 | 54' | Jonathan Howson scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +31% NOR |
| 7 | 66' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +35% STK |
| 8 | 77' | Own goal by nan, for StokeOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +6% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 68% · draw 25% · Norwich 7%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 73% · draw 21% · Norwich 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Norwich
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace Jan 12, 2016 · replay 62% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 1–3 West Ham Jan 12, 2016 · replay 58% for West Ham
- Newcastle 3–3 Man United Jan 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 0–1 Leicester Jan 13, 2016 · replay 42% for Leicester
- Chelsea 2–2 West Brom Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 2–4 Sunderland Jan 13, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Man City 0–0 Everton Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Southampton 2–0 Watford Jan 13, 2016 · replay 93% for Southampton
- Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws