Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 13, 2016
Tottenham 0–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Tottenham 1–0, but the replays lean toward Tottenham: 4 wins in 10 to Leicester’s 3, 3 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 1.46 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.08 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Leicester lucky · −58 Tottenham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 4, 3 end level, Leicester win 3.
- 1 TOT 1 LEI 0
- 2 TOT 2 LEI 1
- 3 TOT 2 LEI 0
- 4 TOT 3 LEI 0
- 5 TOT 1 LEI 1
- 6 TOT 0 LEI 0
- 7 TOT 1 LEI 1
- 8 TOT 1 LEI 3
- 9 TOT 0 LEI 1
- 10 TOT 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 45%, 26% end level, Leicester win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 9.3% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 13.9% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 21.5% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
| Leicester by 1 | 17.6% |
| Leicester by 2 | 8.0% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 21 | 0 | 1.46 | −1.46 |
 Leicester | 10 | 1 | 1.08 | −0.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 61' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 82' | Robert Huth scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% TOT |
| 2 | 61' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +12% LEI |
| 3 | 74' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +10% LEI |
| 4 | 75' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +9% TOT |
| 5 | 75' | Danny Drinkwater didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% TOT |
| 6 | 75' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% TOT |
| 7 | 78' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% LEI |
| 8 | 82' | The game turned hereRobert Huth scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +44% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 45% · draw 27% · Leicester 29%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 45% · draw 26% · Leicester 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Leicester
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace Jan 12, 2016 · replay 62% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 1–3 West Ham Jan 12, 2016 · replay 58% for West Ham
- Newcastle 3–3 Man United Jan 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Stoke 3–1 Norwich Jan 13, 2016 · replay 83% for Stoke
- Chelsea 2–2 West Brom Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 2–4 Sunderland Jan 13, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Man City 0–0 Everton Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Southampton 2–0 Watford Jan 13, 2016 · replay 93% for Southampton
- Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws