Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 12, 2016
Newcastle 3–3 Man United: who deserved to win?
Newcastle and Man United drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 3 of 10, Man United 5, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (2.1 expected goals to 1.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 3 | 2.11 |
 Manchester United | 3 | 1.86 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Newcastle about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 3, 2 end level, Man United win 5.
- 1 NEW 2 MUN 1
- 2 NEW 2 MUN 1
- 3 NEW 4 MUN 1
- 4 NEW 2 MUN 2
- 5 NEW 2 MUN 2
- 6 NEW 1 MUN 5
- 7 NEW 2 MUN 4
- 8 NEW 1 MUN 3
- 9 NEW 2 MUN 3
- 10 NEW 1 MUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 33%, 21% end level, Man United win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 7.4% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 9.2% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| Man United by 1 | 19.6% |
| Man United by 2 | 14.0% |
| Man United by 3+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 14 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.11 | +0.89 |
 Man United | 12 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.86 | +1.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 37' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 41' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 51' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 55' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 66' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 78' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 89' | Paul Dummett scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% MUN |
| 2 | 37' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +15% MUN |
| 3 | 41' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +14% NEW |
| 4 | 51' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +10% MUN |
| 5 | 55' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +6% NEW |
| 6 | 66' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% NEW |
| 7 | 78' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +41% MUN |
| 8 | 89' | Paul Dummett scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +47% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 44% · draw 27% · Man United 29%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 33% · draw 21% · Man United 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace Jan 12, 2016 · replay 62% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 1–3 West Ham Jan 12, 2016 · replay 58% for West Ham
- Tottenham 0–1 Leicester Jan 13, 2016 · replay 42% for Leicester
- Stoke 3–1 Norwich Jan 13, 2016 · replay 83% for Stoke
- Chelsea 2–2 West Brom Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 2–4 Sunderland Jan 13, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Man City 0–0 Everton Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Southampton 2–0 Watford Jan 13, 2016 · replay 93% for Southampton
- Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws