Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 13, 2016
Swansea 2–4 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Swansea 4–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sunderland win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.3. An own goal helped Sunderland.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 2 | 1.29 |
 Sunderland | 4 | 2.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Sunderland about even · −25 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 2, 2 end level, Sunderland win 6.
- 1 SWA 2 SUN 1
- 2 SWA 3 SUN 1
- 3 SWA 2 SUN 2
- 4 SWA 0 SUN 0
- 5 SWA 0 SUN 4
- 6 SWA 0 SUN 3
- 7 SWA 1 SUN 3
- 8 SWA 2 SUN 4
- 9 SWA 1 SUN 2
- 10 SWA 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 16%, 18% end level, Sunderland win 66%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Swansea by 2 | 4.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 9.6% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 21.9% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 19.6% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 24.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.29 | +0.71 |
 Sunderland | 7 | 3 | 2.18 | +0.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.57 |
| 5' | Adam Johnson didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 20' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 39' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 60' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 84' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.91 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +11% SUN |
| 2 | 4' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% SUN |
| 3 | 5' | Adam Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +6% SWA |
| 4 | 20' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% SWA |
| 5 | 39' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +26% SWA |
| 6 | 48' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for SunderlandOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +28% SUN |
| 7 | 57' | Jeremain Lens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWA |
| 8 | 60' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +29% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 13% · draw 24% · Sunderland 64%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 16% · draw 18% · Sunderland 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Sunderland
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace Jan 12, 2016 · replay 62% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 1–3 West Ham Jan 12, 2016 · replay 58% for West Ham
- Newcastle 3–3 Man United Jan 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 0–1 Leicester Jan 13, 2016 · replay 42% for Leicester
- Stoke 3–1 Norwich Jan 13, 2016 · replay 83% for Stoke
- Chelsea 2–2 West Brom Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Man City 0–0 Everton Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Southampton 2–0 Watford Jan 13, 2016 · replay 93% for Southampton
- Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws