luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 13, 2016

Man City 0–0 Everton: who deserved to win?

Man City and Everton drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Man City win 6 of 10, Everton 1, and 3 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Manchester City 0 1.37
Everton 0 0.34

January 13, 2016 · Etihad Stadium · Referee: Roger East

Luck index −26 Man City unlucky for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Man City win 6, 3 end level, Everton win 1.

  1. 1 MCI 1 EVE 0
  2. 2 MCI 1 EVE 0
  3. 3 MCI 1 EVE 0
  4. 4 MCI 3 EVE 1
  5. 5 MCI 2 EVE 0
  6. 6 MCI 3 EVE 0
  7. 7 MCI 0 EVE 0
  8. 8 MCI 0 EVE 0
  9. 9 MCI 1 EVE 1
  10. 10 MCI 0 EVE 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Man City win 62%, 27% end level, Everton win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Man City by 3+12.9%
Man City by 219.4%
Man City by 130.0%
Draw27.5%
Everton by 18.2%
Everton by 21.7%
Everton by 3+0.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Man City2201.36−1.36
Everton700.34−0.34

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Man City’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Man City was ahead in it, below while Everton was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 28' Nicolás Hernán Otamendi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +3% EVE
2 30' Leon Osman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% MCI
3 53' Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% EVE
4 54' Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% EVE
5 60' Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% EVE
6 68' Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance +10% EVE
7 76' Jesús Navas González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% EVE
8 82' Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% MCI

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Man City 65% · draw 25% · Everton 10%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.8 for Everton
Luck-adjusted margin
Man City by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Man City 62% · draw 27% · Everton 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Everton

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