Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 12, 2016
Bournemouth 1–3 West Ham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Bournemouth 3–1, and the replays lean West Ham’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Bournemouth, 4 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.42 |
 West Ham United | 3 | 0.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 West Ham lucky · −42 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 2, 4 end level, West Ham win 4.
- 1 BOU 3 WHU 2
- 2 BOU 1 WHU 0
- 3 BOU 0 WHU 0
- 4 BOU 0 WHU 0
- 5 BOU 0 WHU 0
- 6 BOU 0 WHU 0
- 7 BOU 0 WHU 2
- 8 BOU 0 WHU 1
- 9 BOU 1 WHU 2
- 10 BOU 1 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 22%, 40% end level, West Ham win 38%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 4.1% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 17.4% |
| Draw | 40.1% |
| West Ham by 1 | 26.1% |
| West Ham by 2 | 8.7% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 11 | 1 | 0.42 | +0.58 |
 West Ham | 9 | 3 | 0.76 | +2.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Harry Arter scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 66' | Dimitri Payet scored from a free kick | 0.02 |
| 74' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 83' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% BOU |
| 2 | 16' | Harry Arter scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +23% BOU |
| 3 | 37' | James Tomkins didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% BOU |
| 4 | 44' | Dimitri Payet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BOU |
| 5 | 66' | The game turned hereDimitri Payet scored from a free kickFinishing · 2% chance | +35% WHU |
| 6 | 74' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +32% WHU |
| 7 | 80' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WHU |
| 8 | 83' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +4% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 5% · draw 15% · West Ham 80%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 22% · draw 40% · West Ham 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace Jan 12, 2016 · replay 62% for Aston Villa
- Newcastle 3–3 Man United Jan 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 0–1 Leicester Jan 13, 2016 · replay 42% for Leicester
- Stoke 3–1 Norwich Jan 13, 2016 · replay 83% for Stoke
- Chelsea 2–2 West Brom Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 2–4 Sunderland Jan 13, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Man City 0–0 Everton Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Southampton 2–0 Watford Jan 13, 2016 · replay 93% for Southampton
- Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws