Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 13, 2016
Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and Arsenal drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 3 of 10, Arsenal 5, and 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Liverpool about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 3, 2 end level, Arsenal win 5.
- 1 LIV 3 ARS 2
- 2 LIV 2 ARS 1
- 3 LIV 2 ARS 0
- 4 LIV 1 ARS 1
- 5 LIV 1 ARS 1
- 6 LIV 0 ARS 3
- 7 LIV 1 ARS 3
- 8 LIV 0 ARS 2
- 9 LIV 0 ARS 1
- 10 LIV 1 ARS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 26%, 23% end level, Arsenal win 51%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 3.6% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 6.6% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 22.9% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 15.7% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 12.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 23 | 3 | 1.19 | +1.81 |
 Arsenal | 14 | 3 | 1.77 | +1.23 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 13' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 18' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 24' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 27' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shot | 0.76 |
| 54' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 89' | Joe Allen scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +19% LIV |
| 2 | 13' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +21% ARS |
| 3 | 18' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +23% LIV |
| 4 | 24' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +23% ARS |
| 5 | 27' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 76% chance | +22% LIV |
| 6 | 45' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% LIV |
| 7 | 54' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +30% ARS |
| 8 | 89' | Joe Allen scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +45% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 22% · draw 24% · Arsenal 53%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 26% · draw 23% · Arsenal 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace Jan 12, 2016 · replay 62% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 1–3 West Ham Jan 12, 2016 · replay 58% for West Ham
- Newcastle 3–3 Man United Jan 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 0–1 Leicester Jan 13, 2016 · replay 42% for Leicester
- Stoke 3–1 Norwich Jan 13, 2016 · replay 83% for Stoke
- Chelsea 2–2 West Brom Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 2–4 Sunderland Jan 13, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Man City 0–0 Everton Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Southampton 2–0 Watford Jan 13, 2016 · replay 93% for Southampton