Matchday 21 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 12, 2016
Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Aston Villa beat Crystal Palace 1–0, and the replays lean Aston Villa’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 4 end level. Aston Villa made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Aston Villa.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.70 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Aston Villa lucky · −38 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 4, 4 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 AVL 1 CRY 0
- 2 AVL 1 CRY 0
- 3 AVL 1 CRY 0
- 4 AVL 2 CRY 0
- 5 AVL 0 CRY 0
- 6 AVL 0 CRY 0
- 7 AVL 1 CRY 1
- 8 AVL 0 CRY 0
- 9 AVL 0 CRY 1
- 10 AVL 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 42%, 41% end level, Crystal Palace win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Aston Villa by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 3.1% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 11.1% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 27.7% |
| Draw | 40.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 14.1% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 2.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 13 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
 Crystal Palace | 9 | 0 | 0.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% AVL |
| 2 | 38' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% CRY |
| 3 | 51' | Libor Kozák didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CRY |
| 4 | 57' | Joleon Lescott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% CRY |
| 5 | 57' | Own goal by nan, for Aston VillaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +31% AVL |
| 6 | 68' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 3% chance | +1% AVL |
| 7 | 80' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% AVL |
| 8 | 87' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 40% · draw 41% · Crystal Palace 20%
- Final margin
- Aston Villa by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Aston Villa by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 42% · draw 41% · Crystal Palace 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Aston Villa win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 21 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 21, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 1–3 West Ham Jan 12, 2016 · replay 58% for West Ham
- Newcastle 3–3 Man United Jan 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 0–1 Leicester Jan 13, 2016 · replay 42% for Leicester
- Stoke 3–1 Norwich Jan 13, 2016 · replay 83% for Stoke
- Chelsea 2–2 West Brom Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Swansea 2–4 Sunderland Jan 13, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Man City 0–0 Everton Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Southampton 2–0 Watford Jan 13, 2016 · replay 93% for Southampton
- Liverpool 3–3 Arsenal Jan 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws