Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 18, 2016
Swansea 1–0 Watford: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Watford 1–0, but the replays call it even: Swansea win 3 of 10, Watford 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 1 | 0.49 |
 Watford | 0 | 0.59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Swansea lucky · −49 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 3, 4 end level, Watford win 3.
- 1 SWA 1 WAT 0
- 2 SWA 1 WAT 0
- 3 SWA 2 WAT 0
- 4 SWA 0 WAT 0
- 5 SWA 0 WAT 0
- 6 SWA 1 WAT 1
- 7 SWA 1 WAT 1
- 8 SWA 0 WAT 2
- 9 SWA 0 WAT 1
- 10 SWA 0 WAT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 30%, 43% end level, Watford win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Swansea by 2 | 5.8% |
| Swansea by 1 | 22.5% |
| Draw | 42.5% |
| Watford by 1 | 20.7% |
| Watford by 2 | 5.7% |
| Watford by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 10 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
 Watford | 12 | 0 | 0.59 | −0.59 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Ashley Williams scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SWA |
| 2 | 4' | Jack Frank Porteous Cork didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WAT |
| 3 | 20' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SWA |
| 4 | 26' | Ashley Williams scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +23% SWA |
| 5 | 51' | Miguel Ángel Britos Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWA |
| 6 | 65' | José Manuel Jurado Marín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% SWA |
| 7 | 87' | José Manuel Jurado Marín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SWA |
| 8 | 92' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 26% · draw 40% · Watford 34%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 30% · draw 43% · Watford 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Watford
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–0 Norwich Jan 16, 2016 · replay 93% for Bournemouth
- Tottenham 4–1 Sunderland Jan 16, 2016 · replay 92% for Tottenham
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- Southampton 3–0 West Brom Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Man City 4–0 Crystal Palace Jan 16, 2016 · replay 85% for Man City
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