Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Bournemouth 3–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Norwich 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 2.26 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Bournemouth about even · −7 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 9, 1 ends level, Norwich win 0.
- 1 BOU 3 NOR 2
- 2 BOU 3 NOR 2
- 3 BOU 2 NOR 0
- 4 BOU 2 NOR 0
- 5 BOU 3 NOR 0
- 6 BOU 3 NOR 0
- 7 BOU 4 NOR 0
- 8 BOU 5 NOR 1
- 9 BOU 6 NOR 0
- 10 BOU 1 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 88%, 9% end level, Norwich win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 48.8% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 21.2% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 18.5% |
| Draw | 9.1% |
| Norwich by 1 | 2.0% |
| Norwich by 2 | 0.3% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 15 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.26 | +0.74 |
 Norwich | 10 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Dan Gosling scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 45' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 53' | Charlie Daniels scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 74' | Benik Afobe scored from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Benik Afobe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% NOR |
| 2 | 9' | Dan Gosling scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +16% BOU |
| 3 | 10' | Wes Hoolahan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% BOU |
| 4 | 34' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 3% chance | +1% BOU |
| 5 | 45' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +4% NOR |
| 6 | 52' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% NOR |
| 7 | 53' | Charlie Daniels scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% BOU |
| 8 | 71' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +1% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 97% · draw 3% · Norwich 0%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 88% · draw 9% · Norwich 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · Norwich
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Tottenham 4–1 Sunderland Jan 16, 2016 · replay 92% for Tottenham
- Chelsea 3–3 Everton Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Southampton 3–0 West Brom Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Man City 4–0 Crystal Palace Jan 16, 2016 · replay 85% for Man City
- Newcastle 2–1 West Ham Jan 16, 2016 · replay 83% for Newcastle
- Stoke 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Liverpool 0–1 Man United Jan 17, 2016 · replay 28% for Man United
- Swansea 1–0 Watford Jan 18, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea