Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Newcastle 2–1 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat West Ham 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 2 | 2.38 |
 West Ham United | 1 | 1.57 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Newcastle about even · −17 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 8, 1 ends level, West Ham win 1.
- 1 NEW 2 WHU 1
- 2 NEW 2 WHU 1
- 3 NEW 4 WHU 2
- 4 NEW 3 WHU 1
- 5 NEW 3 WHU 0
- 6 NEW 3 WHU 0
- 7 NEW 4 WHU 0
- 8 NEW 6 WHU 1
- 9 NEW 2 WHU 2
- 10 NEW 1 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 77%, 12% end level, West Ham win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 38.5% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 19.7% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 18.9% |
| Draw | 12.4% |
| West Ham by 1 | 6.8% |
| West Ham by 2 | 2.5% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 23 | 2 | 2.38 | −0.38 |
 West Ham | 10 | 1 | 1.57 | −0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 14' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.65 |
| 18' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 48' | Nikica Jelavić scored from a shot | 0.71 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WHU |
| 2 | 5' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +20% NEW |
| 3 | 14' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 65% chance | +4% NEW |
| 4 | 27' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% NEW |
| 5 | 36' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% NEW |
| 6 | 48' | Nikica Jelavić scored from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +3% WHU |
| 7 | 88' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +8% NEW |
| 8 | 89' | Nikica Jelavić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 56% · draw 23% · West Ham 21%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 77% · draw 12% · West Ham 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–0 Norwich Jan 16, 2016 · replay 93% for Bournemouth
- Tottenham 4–1 Sunderland Jan 16, 2016 · replay 92% for Tottenham
- Chelsea 3–3 Everton Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Southampton 3–0 West Brom Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Man City 4–0 Crystal Palace Jan 16, 2016 · replay 85% for Man City
- Stoke 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Liverpool 0–1 Man United Jan 17, 2016 · replay 28% for Man United
- Swansea 1–0 Watford Jan 18, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea