Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Chelsea 3–3 Everton: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and Everton drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 5 of 10, Everton 3, and 2 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.4. An own goal helped Everton.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −7 Chelsea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 5, 2 end level, Everton win 3.
- 1 CHE 1 EVE 0
- 2 CHE 1 EVE 0
- 3 CHE 5 EVE 3
- 4 CHE 3 EVE 1
- 5 CHE 5 EVE 2
- 6 CHE 2 EVE 2
- 7 CHE 2 EVE 2
- 8 CHE 0 EVE 3
- 9 CHE 1 EVE 2
- 10 CHE 0 EVE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 46%, 22% end level, Everton win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 11.2% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 13.5% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 17.4% |
| Everton by 2 | 9.5% |
| Everton by 3+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 14 | 3 | 2.17 | +0.83 |
 Everton | 9 | 2 | 1.35 | +0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 55' | Kevin Mirallas scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 63' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.96 |
| 65' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 74' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 89' | José Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 97' | John Terry scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Bryan Oviedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% CHE |
| 2 | 49' | Own goal by nan, for EvertonOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +32% EVE |
| 3 | 55' | Kevin Mirallas scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +14% EVE |
| 4 | 65' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +35% CHE |
| 5 | 74' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +19% EVE |
| 6 | 75' | Kevin Mirallas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +12% CHE |
| 7 | 89' | José Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +25% EVE |
| 8 | 97' | John Terry scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +37% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 61% · draw 23% · Everton 17%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 46% · draw 22% · Everton 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–0 Norwich Jan 16, 2016 · replay 93% for Bournemouth
- Tottenham 4–1 Sunderland Jan 16, 2016 · replay 92% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–0 West Brom Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Man City 4–0 Crystal Palace Jan 16, 2016 · replay 85% for Man City
- Newcastle 2–1 West Ham Jan 16, 2016 · replay 83% for Newcastle
- Stoke 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Liverpool 0–1 Man United Jan 17, 2016 · replay 28% for Man United
- Swansea 1–0 Watford Jan 18, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea