Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Man City 4–0 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Crystal Palace 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 4 | 1.87 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.94 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Man City about even · −15 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 8, 1 ends level, Crystal Palace win 1.
- 1 MCI 2 CRY 1
- 2 MCI 3 CRY 2
- 3 MCI 2 CRY 1
- 4 MCI 2 CRY 0
- 5 MCI 3 CRY 1
- 6 MCI 4 CRY 1
- 7 MCI 4 CRY 0
- 8 MCI 6 CRY 1
- 9 MCI 2 CRY 2
- 10 MCI 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 78%, 13% end level, Crystal Palace win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 36.3% |
| Man City by 2 | 20.5% |
| Man City by 1 | 21.1% |
| Draw | 13.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 6.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 2.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 17 | 4 | 1.87 | +2.13 |
 Crystal Palace | 9 | 0 | 0.94 | −0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Fabian Delph scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 23' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 40' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 67' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.64 |
| 83' | David Josué Jiménez Silva scored from a shot | 0.67 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% MCI |
| 2 | 14' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MCI |
| 3 | 14' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MCI |
| 4 | 21' | Fabian Delph scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +24% MCI |
| 5 | 23' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +12% MCI |
| 6 | 32' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +1% MCI |
| 7 | 37' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% CRY |
| 8 | 40' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +12% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 86% · draw 10% · Crystal Palace 3%
- Final margin
- Man City by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 78% · draw 13% · Crystal Palace 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–0 Norwich Jan 16, 2016 · replay 93% for Bournemouth
- Tottenham 4–1 Sunderland Jan 16, 2016 · replay 92% for Tottenham
- Chelsea 3–3 Everton Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Southampton 3–0 West Brom Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Newcastle 2–1 West Ham Jan 16, 2016 · replay 83% for Newcastle
- Stoke 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Liverpool 0–1 Man United Jan 17, 2016 · replay 28% for Man United
- Swansea 1–0 Watford Jan 18, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea