Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Tottenham 4–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Sunderland 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 2.73 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 0.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Tottenham about even · −8 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 9, 1 ends level, Sunderland win 0.
- 1 TOT 2 SUN 1
- 2 TOT 1 SUN 0
- 3 TOT 2 SUN 0
- 4 TOT 2 SUN 0
- 5 TOT 3 SUN 0
- 6 TOT 3 SUN 0
- 7 TOT 5 SUN 1
- 8 TOT 5 SUN 0
- 9 TOT 7 SUN 1
- 10 TOT 0 SUN 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 88%, 8% end level, Sunderland win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 50.3% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 21.1% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 16.7% |
| Draw | 8.3% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 2.9% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 0.6% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 26 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.73 | +1.27 |
 Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 0.52 | +0.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 39' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 41' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 59' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 66' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 78' | Harry Kane scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Toby Alderweireld didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +5% SUN |
| 2 | 8' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% SUN |
| 3 | 16' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% SUN |
| 4 | 31' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% SUN |
| 5 | 39' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +22% SUN |
| 6 | 41' | The game turned hereChristian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +30% TOT |
| 7 | 59' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +31% TOT |
| 8 | 66' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +9% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 97% · draw 3% · Sunderland 0%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 88% · draw 8% · Sunderland 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–0 Norwich Jan 16, 2016 · replay 93% for Bournemouth
- Chelsea 3–3 Everton Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Southampton 3–0 West Brom Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Man City 4–0 Crystal Palace Jan 16, 2016 · replay 85% for Man City
- Newcastle 2–1 West Ham Jan 16, 2016 · replay 83% for Newcastle
- Stoke 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Liverpool 0–1 Man United Jan 17, 2016 · replay 28% for Man United
- Swansea 1–0 Watford Jan 18, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea